Thoroughbreds at Monmouth Park. Photo by Meghan Lalonde.

Betting on horse racing is arguably one of the most unpredictable things a punter can do. You’re betting on an animal, and unlike an athlete, they can’t tell you how they’re doing on the day. So, how do you go about trying to find a winning horse to bet on? The key is research! Let’s take a look at some things you could do to improve your chances of choosing a potential winner.

5 Key factors to pay attention to when betting on a horse

There’s a lot of information to process and research when you’re betting. We’ve put together five key factors to pay attention to, so out of everything, these could be the most helpful things when placing your bet.

1.   Consider the weight of the horse

In every race, each horse carries a specific weight according to its merit rating. The initial merit rating is determined after the horse’s performance after its first three races, and thereafter changes after every performance. The weight a horse carries will change according to the type of race they’re in and how well they’ve been doing to ensure there are no advantages for horses that are superior to others. So, before you choose a horse to bet on, make sure that the horse is well-weighted and in conformity with its merit rating.

2.   Pay attention to past performances and form

Just because a horse won in a previous race doesn’t mean that they will definitely win the next one, but it is a good indicator of their potential to win. A horse’s form is one of the clearest indicators of its current ability. The form line in a race card shows where the horse finished in its recent races. A string of top-three finishes often signals reliability, but you also need to look beyond just the numbers.

Check the context of those performances. Was the horse running on a similar surface, over the same distance, or in the same class? Did it perform well under similar track conditions or weather? A horse that has been consistent on firm ground may struggle if rain makes the surface heavy. Likewise, a strong finisher might prefer longer distances where stamina plays a bigger role. Take note of patterns. Horses that run well under similar setups tend to repeat those performances.

3.   Consider the type of race that is being run

Horses are built differently, which means that some will perform better in certain races and conditions than others. This means that knowing what type of race is being run is going to greatly impact your choice of horse to bet on. Here are the four main categories of horse races:

• Lower handicap races – these are your everyday horse races
• Grade 3 races – these races can be compared the top five leagues in other sports
• Grade 2 races – these races can be compared to a championship league
• Grade 1 races – these races can be compared to that of a World Cup Final

When you look at the past performance of a horse, it becomes clear that a horse running in the top 6 of a Grade 1 race is better than a horse that has won multiple times in a lower handicap race. Therefore, it’s important not to just look at a horse’s win streak but consider the type of races they have won, too.

4.   Know the odds

Odds tell you more than just potential payout; they reflect market confidence and bookmaker assessment. Favourites are often backed heavily because they have proven ability, but that does not mean they always win. In fact, many seasoned punters look for value rather than simply chasing the favourite. Value betting means identifying horses whose odds suggest they have a smaller chance of winning than your research indicates.

For example, if a horse is listed at ten to one but you believe its true chance is closer to five to one, that represents value. Track how odds move leading up to the race. If a horse’s odds shorten, it usually means there is strong support in the market, possibly due to inside tips or changing conditions that suit the horse. Late shifts in the market can be a valuable indicator.

5.   Pay attention to the barrier draw

Barrier draws can have a big influence on race outcomes, particularly in shorter races where positioning early on is crucial. Horses drawn near the inside rail often save ground, while those on the outer barriers may need to work harder to find a good spot. Some horses prefer racing from the front and benefit from inside draws. Others run better when they can settle off the pace, making middle or outer barriers more suitable.

Checking how a horse has performed from different barriers in the past can help you understand whether its draw is an advantage or a setback.

Where can I find the best racing odds?

Looking for the best place to find reliable racing odds for different horse races? We recommend taking a look at Neds’ racing odds. Neds is one of the best sites to check out to stay on top of everything betting, including horse races.

Final Thoughts

When it comes to trying to choose which horse to lay a bet on, even with tons of research and paying attention to key details, there’s always a chance that your horse won’t perform the way you anticipated. But the unpredictability of the race is still what makes placing the bet so exhilarating. So, when you plan on betting on a horse race, do your best to do your research anyway; it’s the best strategy you can adopt.

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