Thoroughbred Logic, Presented by Thoroughbred Logic: Market Frustrations

“Once one is restarted, there’s a clamoring for horses around the $5,000 mark. Folks, many of the nice ones are coming straight off the track at around or above that $5,000 mark.”

Welcome to the next installment of Thoroughbred Logic. In this weekly series, Anthropologist and trainer Aubrey Graham, of Kivu Sport Horses, offers insight and training experience when it comes to working with Thoroughbreds (although much will apply to all breeds). This week ride along as Aubrey shares her logic — and frustration! — on the Thoroughbred market.

I love my horse friends. And I worry about all of us — anyone in training, breeding, boarding and sales…. anyone trying to do this full-time without generational wealth and a trust fund.

Horses are hard. No surprise there. There are the usual highs (you know, actually getting to ride, the occasionally sunny day and the smell of spring grass) and the crushing lows — dreams shattered in pasture accidents, deaths, and the consistent grind of financials that just don’t add up. But I don’t think it is getting any easier as we go. I watch colleagues close their doors to boarders because while the math never really mathed, it has gotten worse. Thoroughbreds somehow are harder. Folks are getting out of the game or pivoting sales programs to follow the market, and there is hard-earned ground and struggle hiding at the edges of nearly every cheery lesson photo and show success image. So much work for the love of the horse. But so little gain. So little getting ahead. So few easy months.

Emmett (Oboy) has packed on the pounds here and is doing fantastic. Photo by Lily Drew.

We live in the world of curated existences. Everything online is marketing. I actually find that bit fun. As an Anthropologist who specializes in the subfield of visual anthropology, I’m aware of the edits on photos, the things that may have been cropped out, and what we’re all trying to highlight vs. limit (direct images of the awe-inspiring New York mud make the limit list). No one wants to publicly say they’re having a tough time, or that the finicky OTTB market is making things harder and harder. But you can read it in training and boarding openings and the glut of horses for sale at the bottom of the market.

And I can see it in the discussions I have with consignment clients. Everyone has a Thoroughbred to sell. And yet, not many want or have the ability to invest in their sale. Increasingly, I am asked to take the risk — take the horse or buy the horse on a low ball and resell it. You could read that in a lot of tones. I’m trying a positive one for now. I’m not actually bitter about this — I get it. A horse off a feed bill is often a better financial move than investing in its training and sale, retaining risk of injury while paying board and commission. And I appreciate that folks trust me with getting their horses to the right home. But that doesn’t keep my lights on.

Two little redheads former sales horses, Mr KW (Snaps, with Aimee Colbath) and Reunion Tour (Artie). Photo by the Kivu team — Lily Drew or Izzy Gritsavage.

I sat at dinner with my partner last night and we ran numbers and options. Something has to give and I have to pivot, adjust, accommodate. That’s been the case for the last six or seven years — always finding another way to make it work when feed prices go up or folks are reticent to send horses for training when the economy is iffy. I’m damn stubborn (shocker for those who know me, I’m sure…) and I have no intention of throwing in the towel. Hell, all horse people in this business have to be stubborn or you’d just take one look at the numbers, sell the horses, and find a normal life somewhere else, doing something else and maybe ride on the weekends after brunch. What even is brunch?

That option still sounds awful.

I could carry on and vent about how I refuse to compromise on so many things in this business. But the important one is that I refuse to compromise on the Thoroughbred. And that’s where the discussion went yesterday. He keeps circling back to, “Why don’t you start training and selling more Quarter Horses, drafts… things that average riders can ride…things that eat less… things that have a better resale?” And while there’s no good financial logic in it, I come back to the fact that the Thoroughbred is the only thing I want to ride. There are plenty of other nice horses, don’t get me wrong. But given my druthers, it’s a Thoroughbred every time.

Major Spin clicking around at his first show. Photo by Izzy Gritsavage.

But once off the track, Thoroughbreds are struggling in the current market. The tracks have increased the sale prices of retired horses. Big, sound, nice moving geldings are coming off the track in the mid- to high-four figures. More if they’re gray or covered in chrome. I live near enough to a track up here, but the rehoming prices are such that I find it tough to get horses there. On one hand, it’s a very good thing that the market for these horses has increased as they leave the track. There’s value in it — in the second career Thoroughbred that perhaps was not there 20 years ago. Hell, even 10 years ago, trainer listings were thousands less than they are now. And in many ways, that’s an indicator that these horses are valued and, thus, safer. GOOD.

Augusto Starship is exactly one of those fantastic horses coming off the track. Photo by Lily Drew.

But then what? When these horses come off the track, are let down, fed well and properly restarted (not “flipped” — I hate that word), the other hand shows margins so small it makes me wonder what we’re doing wrong and why the value there doesn’t add up. Why has the secondary value of Thoroughbreds not gone up accordingly? Sure there are horses succeeding in each discipline whose worth is tied to their wins and record. Thank goodness. But the logic of the market is tough — more often than not it doesn’t actually add up to put time, money, feed, field trips, and training into these horses. And frankly, that makes me equal parts sad and angry.

Once one is restarted, there’s a clamoring for horses around the $5,000 mark. Folks, many of the nice ones are coming straight off the track at around or above that $5,000 mark. Sure, there are ways to bargain hunt horses, but my point is that the market has shifted at the bottom, but has not accordingly moved at its mid-point (where myself and most of my TB friends operate). The people assessing, training, letting down, feeding and marketing these horses to appropriate homes might look like they’re selling a lot of horses, but they’re often making pennies on the dollar. And as my horses decided to remind me, anytime you do think you’re about to get a little ahead, they step on a nail or get kicked and respectively spend a handful of days at a university, magically transforming a small but important financial win into a net zero with a whole lot of work and nothing to show for it.

Tetris (Not A Game, now owned by Izzy Gritsavage) has been one of those that has been so worth it to bring along. Thanks, kid for always reminding me why I love my job. Photo by Lily Drew.

So this may sound like whole lot of frustration from someone far too mired in the business to see the way out — that would probably be accurate. But there’re some important questions here about the market, the continued value of these horses and how increasing demand for the “easier” riding horses is squeezing those committed to the Thoroughbred. So I’m going to head back to the drawing board, crunch numbers, and hopefully walk out of this week with a renewed plan for how to stay in Thoroughbreds and keep my head above water.  And in the meantime, if you all have any brilliant ideas on that or how to fix the market, I’m all ears.

So go ride folks. That’s one of the best parts of this whole crazy life.

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